Flight cancellations caused by a typhoon in Northeast Asia and national holidays in several European countries have led to a significant mid-August fall in air cargo tonnages, according to the latest figures and analysis from WorldACD Market Data.
Air cargo tonnages in week 33 (12 to 18 August) dipped sharply, by -7% compared with the previous week, dropping especially steeply from Asia Pacific (-9%) and Europe (-11%) origins. Further analysis, based on the more than 450,000 weekly transactions covered by WorldACD’s data, reveals that most of the decline ex-Asia Pacific (almost 70%, or -6% points out of the -9%) can be explained by a drop in tonnages ex-Japan (-47%) due to a typhoon that led to flight cancellations to and from the island nation. Flights to and from South Korea were also affected, but to a much lesser extent.
Similarly, most of the -11% decline ex-Europe (around 80%, or -9% points out of the -11%) can be explained by a fall in tonnages flown from countries where a 15 August holiday (‘The Assumption’) was widely celebrated (significantly in France, Italy and Spain, but also parts of Germany and Belgium). If we adjust for those effects (assuming the reductions can be fully attributed to those causes), the remaining global reduction in tonnages would be limited to -2%, week on week (WoW), instead of -7% – consistent with an underlying global slight weakening trend this month, compared with July’s relatively strong performance.
Compared with the equivalent period last year, tonnages flown were still up globally by +9%, including year-on-year (YoY) rises from both Asia Pacific (+10%) and Europe (+8%) origins.
Worldwide rates edge up
On the pricing side, average worldwide rates – based on a full-market average of spot rates and contract rates – edged up +1% further to US$2.49 per kilo, with most regions flat, WoW, but with a +2% increase from Asia Pacific, and a -2% decline from Africa. That level of $2.49 a kilo represents a +45% rise compared with the last pre-Covid equivalent period, in August 2019.
Year on year, average worldwide prices were up +11% in week 33, thanks to YoY increases of +57% from Middle East & South Asia and +22% from Asia Pacific. Meanwhile, increases in capacity on the head-haul legs from those two markets to accommodate the increases in demand, have led to continuing drops in prices on the respective backhaul lanes, with average rates from Europe down by -11%, YoY, and from North America origins by -8%.
The effects on average spot market price levels are slightly more pronounced, with a global WoW rise of +2% to $2.75 a kilo, taking global spot prices back to around their levels in weeks 29 and 30, and +21% above last year’s levels in week 33.
