The push towards sustainability in aviation has never been more urgent. As the world seeks to combat climate change, the aviation industry faces the formidable challenge of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Central to this goal is the rapid scaling up of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production. However, the path to widespread SAF adoption is fraught with challenges that require coordinated efforts from multiple stakeholders.
The challenge of ramping up Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production is monumental, with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimating that SAF will need to account for approximately 65 percent of the net-zero emissions target by 2050. This translates to an extraordinary need to increase SAF production a thousand-fold between 2024 and 2050.
“SAF will provide about 65 percent of the mitigation needed for airlines to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. So, the expected tripling of SAF production in 2024, compared with 2023, is encouraging. We still have a long way to go, but the direction of exponential increases is starting to come into focus,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
The importance of SAF
SAF represents a significant advancement in reducing the carbon footprint of air travel. Unlike traditional jet fuel, SAF is produced from renewable resources such as waste oils, agricultural residues, and even algae. It has the potential to reduce lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80 percent. Despite its promise, SAF currently accounts for less than 1 percent of global jet fuel consumption.
Scaling up production
One of the primary hurdles in ramping up SAF production is the sheer scale required to meet future demand. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that the aviation industry will need 450 billion litres of SAF annually by 2050 to meet its emissions targets. Currently, production is just a fraction of this amount, highlighting the need for a rapid and substantial increase.
At IATA AGM in Dubai, a panel discussion featuring producers, regulators, and airlines highlighted the complexities of this task. The discussion, marked by vigorous exchanges and pushback from all sides, scrutinised the accuracy of production figures, the setting of targets, and the relative merits of mandates versus incentives.
Globally, the approach to ramping up SAF production varies significantly. The European Union tends to favour mandates, the United States implements incentives, and Japan employs a blend of both. However, it is widely acknowledged that incentives are crucial for fostering the innovation needed to boost production and develop new SAF pathways.
The debate also delved into the various technological and feedstock options available for SAF production. Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) are an established pathway, but others, such as alcohol-to-jet fuel, are also gaining traction. An example cited was an Australian refinery benefiting from an investment by Qantas, which is set to use the alcohol-to-jet pathway.
This diverse and evolving technological landscape presents significant challenges. All stakeholders are seeking clarity on the most effective paths forward. The panel concurred that low-carbon fuels could serve as an important transitional power source. Additionally, airlines called for greater transparency from SAF suppliers regarding production costs to better understand the economics involved and procure affordable SAF to meet the various global mandates and targets.
Despite these challenges, there are positive signs. SAF production is beginning to accelerate, with new plants opening globally and the regulatory environment evolving to support this growth. While there is still much work to be done, a clearer path forward is emerging, promising a more sustainable future for aviation.
Accelerating SAF production
In a significant step towards reducing the aviation industry’s carbon footprint, the potential for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is rapidly increasing as part of the broader renewable fuel production sector. The aviation industry is heavily reliant on the expansion of renewable fuel projects to meet its sustainability targets.
Surge in renewable fuel projects
By 2030, approximately 140 renewable fuel projects capable of producing SAF are expected to be operational. If these projects proceed as planned, the total renewable fuel production capacity could reach 51 million tonnes, with production capabilities spread across almost all regions. This marks a substantial increase from current levels, reflecting growing investor interest in SAF. Typically, it takes three to five years from planning to production, meaning that investment announcements made as late as 2027 could still be operational by 2030. However, not all announced projects reach final investment decisions, highlighting the need for sustained efforts and commitments.
Achieving ICAO’s ambitious boals
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) has set a goal to achieve a 5 percent reduction in CO2 emissions for international aviation from SAF by 2030. To meet this target, around 27 percent of the expected renewable fuel production capacity in 2030 must be SAF. Currently, SAF constitutes just 3 percent of all renewable fuel production, indicating a significant gap that needs to be bridged.
“The interest in SAF is growing, and there is plenty of potential. But the concrete plans that we have seen so far are far from sufficient. Governments have set clear expectations for aviation to achieve a 5 percent CO2 emissions reduction through SAF by 2030 and to be net zero carbon emissions by 2050. They now need to implement policies to ensure that airlines can actually purchase SAF in the required quantities,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
Policy measures to accelerate SAF production
Several policy measures have been proposed to accelerate the production and adoption of SAF:
1.Diversifying feedstocks: Currently, about 80 percent of SAF production is expected to come from hydrogenated fatty acids (HEFA) such as used cooking oils and animal fats. Expanding the use of other certified pathways and feedstocks, including agricultural and forestry residues and municipal waste, can significantly increase SAF production potential.
2. Co-processing: Utilising existing refineries to co-process up to 5 percent of approved renewable feedstocks alongside crude oil streams can quickly expand SAF production. Urgent policy implementation is required to facilitate consistent lifecycle assessments.
3. Incentives for renewable fuel facilities: Policies should be established to shift production towards the long-term needs of air transport for SAF. Incentives aimed at SAF can help transition renewable diesel production to SAF with minimal modifications at existing facilities.
4. Boosting investments: Strong policy support is needed to scale up renewable fuel production. The US Grand Challenge, which supports US$3 billion in investments, is one example. Stable, long-term tax credits could further maximise SAF production capabilities in both existing and new facilities.
“Incentives to build more renewable energy facilities, strengthen the feedstock supply chain, and allocate a greater portion of renewable fuel output to aviation would help decarbonise aviation. Governments can also facilitate technical solutions with accelerated approvals for diverse feedstocks and production methodologies, as well as co-processing renewable feedstocks in crude oil plants. No single policy or strategy will get us to the needed levels, but a combination of all potential measures can make producing sufficient quantities of SAF possible,” added Walsh.
Public support for SAF
Public support for SAF is strong. Walsh revealed that “86% of travellers believe governments should provide incentives for airlines to use SAF. Additionally, the same percentage of air passengers agree that leading oil corporations should prioritise the production of SAF.”
What’s next?
The pathway to ramping up SAF production is clear but challenging. With coordinated efforts from governments, investors, and the aviation industry, significant progress can be made.
The future of sustainable aviation hinges on the successful implementation of diverse policy measures and the rapid scaling up of SAF production to meet the ambitious climate goals set for the industry.
